EUR-USD
Pričakovan dvig vse do 1,3950 ali 1,4114 - 1,3885. Po dvigu je pričakovan padec

USD-CHF
Padec vse do območja do 1,0731 ali celo do območja 1,0657, kar je pričakovano

GBP-USD
Ni scenarija

USD-JPY
Če trg ostane pod 98,2800, je pričakovan padec do 97,3267.

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Dnevna tehnična analiza - EUR/USD [2.6.2009]

Scenarij	Tehnične točke	Supports / Resistances	Kanali & Oscilator
Elliott : popravek vse do 1,4210 Scenarij za danes Podpora na 1,4090. V primeru, da je podpora na 1,4090 se lahko povzpne vse do 1,4237 v nasprotnem primeru se lahko konča pri 1,4021	Ključna točka 1.4232 Vstopna točka 1.4216 Elliott 1.3793 Zapiranje 1.4159 Projection 1.4210 Trendline 1.4122 Trendline 1.4273	Res 2 1.4315 Ex-High 1.4246 Res 1 1.4237 Pivot 1.4168 Sup 1 1.4090 Ex-Low 1.4099 Sup 2 1.4021	1.4170 1.4119 1.3952 1.3901
	Opozorilo: Konec trenda

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Euro Falls Despite Risk Appetite; AUD, NZD Falls on China’s
Sluggish Growth

The Euro had another poor week, losing to the pound and greenback
. The correlation with risk appetite was apparently broken for
this week because even though stocks rallied, the Euro struggled
. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars also took a hit from the
release of China’s poor growth performance in Q1, which declined
from an annual rate of 6.8% to 6.1%. China is a main importer of
goods from Australia and New Zealand, and therefore a shrinking
Chinese economy negatively affects these two countries.

NZD/USD Decline Week Brings Pair to Possible Gartley.
The Kiwi had a second swing-down since the rally that started in
April. China’s decelerating growth rate caught attention of the
market, which pressured the commodity currency even more since
it does a big portion of exporting to China. The decline however
may not be sustainable. A breakdown below 0.5500 would indicate
such strength. However before that happens, there is resistance
at the 0.5650 level, which if held up would be a completion of a
gartley, indicating further rise in the pair.

USD/CHF Channel Support Holds;
Last week we noted careful watch at the channel support and see
if the price action can break it. If it can, our short-term
gartley pattern would work out. However, it didn’t. Instead the
support held and there is further retracement in a channel. This
week ends with the 3rd wave up in this retracement channel. Did
the market exhaust its rally yet? This is possible. However, it
is also possible that prices will rally further to 78.6%
retracement at the 1.1800 level. The second scenario is prefered
because we would be able to put a tighter stop if we decide to
go short from this level instead of the current 1.1700.  If a
decline does follow after the 1.8000 resistance, we would still
need to see if it breaks support and than a previous minor low.
Some may want to short now at the resistance, but the fact that
its a rising resistance and a shrinking target makes this less
appealing of a setup.

EUR/JPY’s Possible Gartley

Technical Setup:
A possible gartley is forming here but we need to becareful and
monitor the price action. Today’s “doji” should not be
considered as a reversal signal because it is Friday, and the
liquidity was low. Unless there was a major news announcement
and the bulls and bears fought throughout the day. This was not
such a day. also notice the possible formation of a classic 3-pt
bullish divergence with the stochastic, strong suggestion of a
reversal. A possible target if the reversal indeed follows is at
1.34-1.35 area, which matches the previous resistance, and would
be 61.8% retracement of the down swing.

USD/CAD

Technical Setup:
There is a 6-month development of an ascending triangle, and
there might be a break of the uptrending support this week.
However, this should not be immediately considered as a signal
for a down-trend as the overall market condition is still that
of consolidation. There may be a retest of the powerline, in
which case we will be looking for a strong rejection (at around
the 1.2400 area). If the market indeed bounces off the line as
resistance, a viable target may be 1.8000, which is support from
previous low.

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ECB joining the Quantitative Easing Rhetoric
Last Thursday, although economists had expected a 50bp-cut, ECB
only cut 25bps. Meanwhile, speculation has been increasing that
the bank will soon have to move to tools outside of the interest
rate policy, namely quantitative easing. This Thursday, ECB
council member Nowotny announced that rates would likely go
below 1.00% (1.25% at the moment), and that the bank is
considering buying coporate debt. That put extra pressure on the
Eurozone, along with more disappointing releases from the
Eurozone. Despite a bout of risk appetite on Thursday which
normally pushes up the EUR/USD for example, this pair fell,
indicating that the market was more attentive to the
fundamentals and central bank direction than risk sentiments.
Meanwhile, the RBA cut the OCR to a 49-year of 3.00%. The BoE
also had its interest rate decision, holding the benchmark rate
at 0.50%.

EUR/GBP Falls Below Supports
Last week, we took notice of EUR/GBP’s testing of support. This
week, price action broke through the support in what initially
looked like a clearout action before re-entering the channel.
Then there were further clues of bullish bias as the pair
retested that support and had a very clear rally. However, this
rally was stopped short on Thursday, as the ECB reaffirmed the
market’s speculation that it plans to move to quantitative
easing. This action broke below two converging support lines.
Although our bullish bias (from a previous Gartley), the decline
has brought the pair only to the 61.8% retracement level and at
the 0.9000 area. If the pair breaks this area, it can decline to
0.8800 before a rally. However, a break of that should warn that
the EUR/GBP may be in a major decline. A break of 0.8500 would
be a confirmation of a major decline.

EUR/USD Declines; Gartley Watch
The EUR/USD is possibly setting itself up with a Gartley. This
week’s ECB and fundamentally driven decline puts the EUR/USD
near the 1.3100 area. Further decline is possible, but there is
support at 1.2950-1.3000. Here lies the 61.8% retracement level
as well as the previous resistance which would now be tested as
support. If prices indeed reach this area, a gartley is formed,
and the trader should monitor bullish action. However a break of
that may lead the EUR/USD to the 1.2400-1.2500 support zone.

CHF/JPY Falls Near Upsloping Channel Support

Technical Setup:
In recent issues, we mentioned that the CHF/JPY completed a “W”
or Double-Bottom formation. This week, the pair declined, though
staying within the upsloping channel it has been in since
February. Current RSI levels show strength in sustaining a rally
. We anticiapte this weeks action only to be a minor corrective
decline, which will meet support at both the dynamic trendline
as well as resistance at the 86.00 level. Look for price action
to reflect those previous 2 attempts to break the dynamic
support (either with long tail, or sharp reversal candlestick
combination). That should be the first signal for a re-entrance
to the rally.

USD/CHF: Settling up Gartley in Corrective Move

Technical Setup:
Breaking above its previous minor top and extending about 127%.
This is between the 50% and 61.8% level of the previous rundown.
The result is a gartley formation, indicating bearish bias. The
pattern formed a bit pre-mature, reletive to the classical
fibonacci resistance at 61.8% (1.1668). The 1.1700 level has
even stronger resistance. But if indeed price is ready to head
south, this “miss” of important resistance may indicate bearish
aggressiveness and give more confidence to the bias.

Looking at the 4-H chart, we can also spot a 14-period RSI
bearish divergence. With all this information, an agressive
trader may jump on the decline now with a short-term target of 1
.1170, but waiting for a break in the upsloping support (of a
triangle) would be a very significant step for confirmation. A
break below this level would suggest a more major decline, with
a target at the 1.0850 level (projecting previous range of
decline).

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Risk Appetite Extended after G-20 Summit
Stocks worldwide started the week on a bad note, but didn’t take
long to revive last week’s risk appetite. There is a growing
sense that the recession bottom is nearing. Also, the G-20
summit brought a joint resolution to create a $1 trillion fund
for the IMF, which would give emerging economies a booster shot
against the global recession. The Dollar lost to its rivals, but
the Yen lost more. Commodity pairs rose, along with a resurgence
in oil prices. The Euro gained on the dollar, but the Pound was
the big winner among the European majors.

EUR/GBP Retracement to 50%
The EUR/GBP is testing an important support, which would either
reaffirm the current uptrend, or a signal for further
consolidation/retracement. The 0.9100 support was pierced Friday
and is threatening to break it. This rundown came even though
the ECB cut rates by less than expected. However, this can be a
clear-out action, so the beginning-of-next-week price action
deserves close attention. At the moment, the 4-HR RSI shows a
bullish divergence. An entry with a fairly close stop can be
made if the down sloping resistance is broken, as this would
complete a “abc” retracement. However a more conservative entry
would wait until a break of the 0.9170 minor resistance.

CHF/JPY Breaks out and Completes “W” Pattern aka. Double Bottom
Last week, we saw the CHF/JPY retrace on Friday after
intermediate/consolidation resistance. The market retested this
as support while it penetrated on Monday the up-sloping support
held up. This provided bullish “force” and the pair broke back
up through the intermediate resistance. Those were aggressive
(at support) and conservative (breakout) entries. Finally
Wednesday price action provided a counter-trend which was broken
, giving another conservative entry. This break effectively
completes the “W” pattern (not shown here, but on Daily or
Weekly Charts), which is a double bottom. These formations are
rare and signal an ensuing major rally.

USD/CHF: Resistance Holds Up, Further Consolidation
The USD/CHF rallied to resistance last week. This Monday saw a
slight breakout, but that proved to be a clear-out action. The
resistance held and the market traded this pair in ranging
action through the week, ending at previous minor resistance,
which is now acting as support (1.1340).

USD/CAD: Seeing Support and Sets up Countertrend Resistance

Technical Setup:
The USD/CAD has been in a 4-month consolidation which is looking
to be an ascending triangle with a flat top at 1.3000. Market
price tested support and rallied last week, only to stop at 1
.2700 before returning towards support. The price action to end
the week brought the pair back to retest this support at around
the 1.2300 area. One can use an aggressive triangle pattern
entry at this support, with confirming signals of oscillators
(oversold). For a more conservative long entry, one approach is
to wait for a counter-trend breakout.

GBP/JPY: Rounded Bottom Signals a Bout of Risk Appetite

Technical Setup:
In previous issues we have spotted the GBP/JPY in a reverse head
and shoulder. It is apparent now that more time was needed for
the current consolidation. Eventually as we see this week, the
pattern has successfully completed as a complex reverse head and
shoulders, which some chartists also call “rounded bottoms”.
This basically signals a bottom of a decline as minor bottoms
fail to make new lows after January’s low. The break of
“neckline” at 142.00 was the first major indicator that a bottom
could have been established. The subsequent break of 147.00 adds
more weight to the bullish bias. An intermediate target is at
165.00, with 2-3 expected retracement periods.  This pair is
correlated with risk appetite, and thus reflects the current
feeling that the recession bottom may be nearing. If this is to
be the case, we can note that this recession was truly one a
recession of “confidence”, being that GBP/JPY is a measure of
this factor, and that it bottomed in January. It could then be
debated that this return in confidence was what prevented the
world economy from sinking deeper.

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EUR-USD
Celotna struktura je Medvjedasta. Podpora pri območju 1,3207 ali 1,3166. Glavna podpora okoli območja 1,3019

USD-CHF
Trenutni dvig naj bi se končal v območju 1,1461 ali 1,1540 za preobrat v smer 1,1382 - 1,1333

GBP-USD
Trenutni padec naj bi se končal v območju 1,4196 - 1,4197, Padec pod 1,4134 naj bi ta scenarij preklical

USD-JPY
Korekcija pri območju 98,35 - 97,94. Ustavite izgubo nad območjem 98,76

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EUR-USD
Pričakovan pade do 1.5463 ali 1.5416. Ustavite izgubo, ko valutna pride na 1.56 območje!

USD-CHF
Padec do 1.035 - 1.0414. Najvišja vrednost danes bo okoli 1.0438 - 1.0458. V primeru, da vrednost pade 1.0337,e ta komentar za ta valutni par neuporaben!

GBP-USD
Možen padec do 1.9519 - 1.9579, lahko pa tudi do 1,9459 ali celo 1,935 območje!

USD-JPY
Predviden padec do 107,18 razen v primeru korekcije. Ustavite trgovanje pri 108,35!

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