Zglajeno drseče povprečje (SMMA) je drseče povprečje, katerega glavna uporabnost je v tem, da zgladi nihanja ter tako lepše pokaže prevladujoči trend.
Zanimiva značilnost povprečja je v tem, da daje izjemno veliko težo povprečju starejših podatkov ter zelo majhno težo najnovejšemu podatku ter tako zgladi krivuljo.
Pri izračunu SMMA se predpostavlja, da so bile vse pretekle vrednosti RMA enake, in sicer v višini SMMA‘1, le sedanja cena je od njih različna.
Kot prvo vrednost SMMA lahko pri izračunu uporabimo SMA.
Kadar je kratkoročna SMMA nad dolgoročnimi, smatramo to kot kazalec pozitivnega trenda, kadar pa je kratkoročna SMMA pod dolgoročnimi, pa je to kazalec negativnega trenda.
Primer:
Cena ob 03.00 =121.45
Cena ob 04.00 =122.01
Cena ob 05.00 =121.68
Cena ob 06.00 =121.15
Cena ob 07.00 =120.88
Cena ob 08.00 =120.68
Cena ob 09.00 =120.49
Cena ob 10.00 =120.55
Cena ob 11.00 = 120,31
Cena ob 12.00 = 120,33
Cena ob 13.00 = 120,76
Cena ob 14.00 = 120,42
Cena ob 15.00 = 119,94
Cena ob 16.00 = 120,74
Cena ob 17.00 = 121,68
Primer 1: Izračunajte SMMA (5)
SMMA izračunamo tako:
SMMA-2 = SMA -2 = 120,352
P-1 (Cena) = 120,74
P (Cena) = 121,68
n = 5
SMMA-1 = (SMMA-2 * (n-1) + P-1) / n
SMMA = (SMMA-1 * (n-1) + P ) / n
SMMA-1 = (120,352 * 4 + 120,74) / 5 = ( 481,408 + 120,740 ) / 5 = 602,148 / 5 = 120,4296 = 120,430
SMMA = ( 120,430 * 4 + 121,6 (h) / 5 = ( 481,72 + 121,68 ) / 5 = 603,4 / 5 = 120,68
Zglajeno drseče povprečje predhodnega obdobja (za 5 obdobij) iz gornjih vrednosti znaša 120,43
Strokovnjaki za Forex bi to zapisali v sledečem formatu: SMMA-1 (5) = 120,43
Zglajeno drseče povprečje za 5 obdobij iz gornjih vrednosti znaša 120,68
Strokovnjaki za Forex bi to zapisali v sledečem formatu: SMMA (5) = 120,68
Primer 2: Izračunajte SMMA (10)
SMMA izračunamo tako:
SMMA-2 = SMA -2 = 120,551
P-1 (Cena) = 120,74
P (Cena) = 121,68
n = 10
SMMA-1 = (SMMA-2 * (n-1) + P-1) / n
SMMA = (SMMA-1 * (n-1) + P ) / n
SMMA-1 = (120,551 * 9 + 120,74) / 10 = ( 1084,959 + 120,740 ) / 10 = 1205,699 / 10 = 120,5699 = 120,57
SMMA = ( 120,57 * 9 + 121,6 (h) / 10 = ( 1085,13 + 121,68 ) / 10 = 1206,81 / 10 = 120,681
Zglajeno drseče povprečje predhodnega obdobja (za 5 obdobij) iz gornjih vrednosti znaša 120,57
Strokovnjaki za Forex bi to zapisali v sledečem formatu: SMMA-1 (10) = 120,57
Zglajeno drseče povprečje za 5 obdobij iz gornjih vrednosti znaša 120,681
Strokovnjaki za Forex bi to zapisali v sledečem formatu: SMMA (10) = 120,681
Primer 3: Izračunajte SMMA (12)
SMMA izračunamo tako:
SMMA-2 = SMA -2 = 120,767
P-1 (Cena) = 120,74
P (Cena) = 121,68
n = 10
SMMA-1 = (SMMA-2 * (n-1) + P-1) / n
SMMA = (SMMA-1 * (n-1) + P ) / n
SMMA-1 = (120,767 * 11 + 120,74) / 12 = ( 1328,437 + 120,740 ) / 12 = 1449,177 / 12 = 120,76475 = 120,765
SMMA = ( 120,765 * 11 + 121,6 (h) / 12 = ( 1328,415 + 121,68 ) / 12 = 1450,095 / 12 = 120,84125 = 120,841
Zglajeno drseče povprečje predhodnega obdobja (za 5 obdobij) iz gornjih vrednosti znaša 120,765
Strokovnjaki za Forex bi to zapisali v sledečem formatu: SMMA-1 (10) = 120,765
Zglajeno drseče povprečje za 5 obdobij iz gornjih vrednosti znaša 120,841
Strokovnjaki za Forex bi to zapisali v sledečem formatu: SMMA (10) = 120,841
Kratka analiza rezultatov:
Trenutni tečaj je prebil vrednosti SMMA 5 in SMMA 10 ter se približuje SMMA 15. Sam preboj je pozitiven signal, vendar pa v pozicijo ne vstopamo zaradi tega, ker razporeditev SMMA še vedno ostaja negativna, kljub temu da se kratkoročnejša povprečja približujejo dolgoročnejšim.
Kljub temu da je prišlo do velikega skoka tečaja navzgor, zaradi funkcije izglajevanje kratkoročna SMMA ni dovolj narasla, da bi prebila dolgoročno drseče povprečje, ne glede na to, da so vsa drseča povprečja pridobila pozitivno smer.
Takšno postavitev je potrebno pozorno spremljati in počakati na trenutek, k obo SMMA 5 višje od SMMA 15, in takrat vstopiti v pozicijo.
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